History of the International System – Yale

Readings:

W.Keylor, The Twentieth-Century World: An International History

E.H.Carr, The Twenty-Years Crisis

Jonathan Spence, Mao Zedong

S.Kotkin, Armageddon Averted

The U.S.Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual

Course Reader

Lesson 1 – Course Intro

• The struggle between idealism and reality, freedom and safety, what we intend to do and what we can in fact accomplish
• Insider / outside bias
• The importance of space/location – geography, natural resources, holy sites
• Importance of time – weight of history + reaction time
• America is a country blessed by isolation of geography and plentiful resources

International System – the society of states

1) Sovereignty – a right to act independently in the international community (UN rep, postal stamp, military) + a control over your own territory

– Popular sovereignty

2) Economics

3) Culture – religion & ideology

Lesson 2 – Formation of a Global Society

• late 1800 – The shrinking of the world in terms of travel, rails, telegraphs (Around the world in 80 days)
• The colonisation of Africa – Liberia founded by former slaves – French, British, German, Italian land grab, empire building

World Powers

•  America was only beginning their global presence
• Ottoman empire, Chinese empire – qualified sovereignty – foreign European influence over banking, territorial enclaves – growing resentments in their incursions of sovereignty

• Colonies- Africa & India
• Christianity becomes world religion thru missionaries
• Japan only country that tried to emulate this

•  Hague Conference – Russian Czar – arms control agreements 0 wanted to stop all technological progress

Lesson 3 –  Transformation of the European System

• System failure – comes about either from the system no longer being sufficient or the people operating it to no longer maintain in
• Rising world powers – all 3 go through major changes in the 1860’s
• Japan – magi reformations
• America – civil war
• Germany – Prussian war – Germany becomes country and so becomes world power
• 1890’s, all 3 powers begin to militarise and imperialise
• Germany – only unified recently (along with Italy) – Chancellor Bismarck – Bismarckian Diplomacy – worried about France and Russia, neighbours on East and West, strived to keep them apart – sought alliances aimed towards moderating and containing tensions
•  Germany allies with Russia – Russia is happy to ally as they see it as opportunity to expand their power over disputed territories
• Germany also allies with Austria
• 1890 – bismarck is fired by Kaiser – alliance w/ Russia is dropped – Russians make alliance with France (1982-94) = Bismarck’s nightmare
•  Britain ceases its neutrality and allies w/ America & Japan then in 1904 w/ French & 1907 w/ Russia – conflict management alliances
• Decline of powers
• • Russia – loses war to Japan in 1905, suffers revolution
  • Austria-Hungary – suffers from language and cultural conflict
  • Ottoman empire – Ruled by Turkik people, heart in the Balkans, stretched from Middle East to Eastern Europe – Greeks and Serbs are pushing them out of Europe – destabilising – Muslim minorities driven out by new Christian majorities
  • •  Ottoman empire tensions are very important to the start of the war and the shape of the 20th century – 1908-1911 – days are numbered
• Italy -1911 – go to war against Ottoman empire to acquire Libya – Balkans attack Ottomans – Balkan War – appalling atrocities

• 1914 – Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Hapsburg throne, visits Sarajevo, ruled by Bosnia, for a state visit
• •  Assassinated by Serbian terrorist group
  • Austria uses this as excuse to subdue and humiliate the Serbians as rival
• Serbia – client state of Russia, shares religious, language, ethnic ties – Austria needs to worry about this before attacking Serbia, seeks confirmation from Germany, who agree
• Russians had to get support from France, who agree
• Germany was trying to get out of their encirclement, also feared that Russia was becoming a huge world power and figured that if there was going to be a war, it should be now as opposed to later, when Russia would be more apt to destroy them
• Britain tries to broker peace, leaves their position ambiguous, which makes both sides miscalculate their support on their behalf – fails, Britain allies w/ France + Russia
• Russia mobilises, which means war to Germany, who have a very small window of time (950 hrs) to enact their ‘plan’), Germany tries to get Britain on their side
• Statesmen & diplomacy failed because everyone was in a hurry not to lose control of situation – victory came from the offensive
• Everyone wanted a fast and large offensive battle as prolonged warfare would have devastating effects on the world economy due to the global interdependence of trade

• 1914 – full scale european war

• Germany tries to march through Belgium to get to France without fighting on French/German borders
• Aug 3 – Germany declares war on Belgium & France – ruins Germany in terms of public opinion and turns Britain against Germany
• Belgium stands up to Germany – fortified compounds by the Belgians defeated the first round of German attack
• France and many powers still have armies modelled after Napoleonic times while Germany has modernized
• Eric Ludendorf takes city but forts are still standing – canons from Germany en route to take down forts
• 300,000 pound siege canons – these things are cray badass btw – forts go down FAST
• Germans start killing civilians – policy of frightfulness – collective punishment
• Central powers now pictured as villains – modern day version of the Huns – propaganda

Lesson 4 – WW1

• After marching through Belgium and entering into various bloody skirmishes in France, Germany has French and British troops in retreat, until French Commander Jaffer spots weakness in German flank as they round past Paris via the Schieffen Plan. They take advantage of this and attack, sending the German’s into retreat until they reach the Aignes River, where there is a 500 ft vantage point. Here they entrench.
•  French troops follow and an reconnaissance airplane lands and tells them the Germans have dug down and are waiting for them. Both sides entrench themselves and a race to the sea via Belgium is undertaken to close any remaining flanks.
• Belgium floods her own fertile lands with salt water to keep the Germans at bay in Flanders
• Things stagnate in war of attrition on the western front (between France & Germany) – both sides are looking for allies
• Ottomans join Germans, Italians join French
• 1915 – Germany’s population is starving due to British blockade, decides to blockade British ships by declaring to sink any ships in their designated blockage zone via submarine
• This means sinking of neutral ships and possibly American ships – once Germany becomes afraid of America’s involvement, they cease temporarily
• Russia falls – Bolshevik Revolution – huge implications, a victory for Germany
• Germany returns to submarine warfare, thinking their victory will come before the Americans join

• April 1917 – Bolsheviks in control of Russian Gvt – Americans join the war

• 1918, November 11, 11pm – Armistice signed to end the war

Effects of 1st World War 

• Redrawing maps of Europe – destruction of Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russian empire & Ottoman empire
• America enters the world stage
• Brings communist party to power in Germany

Lesson 5 – Peace Making

Implications of the war

• Dissolving difference between foreign and domestic affairs – emphasis on democratic state
• Lenin & Bolsheviks take over of Russia – Lenin sees future divide as a class struggle vs. Woodrow Wilson, who sees it as a democratic struggle
•  Both believe traditional diplomacy needs to be revised

Consequences of Armistice – French, British, Americans + Reps of German Govt (in which there is a current revolution)

• German state remains despite becoming a republic
• War continues in the east
• Civil war in Turkey
• Poland at war over future geography
• Ethnic violence widespread

• Bolsheviks = 1st communist state (ever) – First orders of business – immediate peace w/ Germany, give land to the peasants, give all power to council (aka the Soviet) – all spells economic disaster
• Lenin believes that seizing power in Russia, he will start a global revolution in the spread of communism
• Communist revolution in Hungary is stifled during peace talks – expediency for the treaty needed

Paris Peace Treaty – Treaty of Versailles

• America – Woodrow Wilson – Democracy & self determination
• France – George Clemenceau – main concern = protect France from Germany – French security
• David Lloyd George – prime minister of Britain – more interested in balance of power, but did suffer in war
• Germans not present – are given terms
• • Germany kept as state but;
  • Army reduced to 10,000
  • Reparations
  • Lose territories
• New states in eastern Europe based on self determination based on ethnic lines
• League of Nations
• Japan led out, Italy leaves on their own
• Wilson & Clemenceau both make compromises – Wilson to get League of Nations passed, which he then fails to get the US to join

Lesson 6 – Inter-war Years – Search for Order

•  Map of Europe re-drawn, European concert over, Globalism starting

•  Hungary lost out with breaking up of Austro-Hungarian empire
•  3 big problems; legitimacy, economic difficulty, security
• France was the big winner of the Treaty of Versailles, but was fearful of German revenge, looked to British and American assurance of safety. America went home. They looked to the new states to form alliances that would replace the Russians. But though Britain agreed to protect parts of France, they wanted nothing to do w/ Eastern Europe
• Britain see themselves as world power as opposed to European power, had stronger alliances w/ America than France
• Lenin + Soviet Union – managed to survive with use of violence but ended up standing alone in a society of non-communists
•  Germany initially surprised by loss as they’d been told they were winning, kaiser flees, Germany builds republic (Weimar Republic), not prepared for the massive reparations and war guilt put upon them

Lesson 7 – The Search for Order – Middle East

• Due to vast deserts, mountains and sparse population, state building is difficult in this area
• Sacred and important historical sites, bedlam of Islam
• Empires don’t desire to homogenise their territory like states do, however don’t strive for equality like states do
• Ottoman Empire, did attempt to impose Islam, allowed everyone to maintain their religions – composite empire
• Greeks and Armenians did very well
• 1492 – Jews expelled from Christian Spain, many welcomed into Ottoman Empire
• Over time, Ottoman Empire is shrunk on the West by Austro-Hungarians and East by Russians
• Find themselves confronted by Christian minorities in heart of Balkan empire who w/ patronage of great powers (like Russia) begin to carve out states of their own
• Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania – Balkan states establish independence from Ottomans – pushed into Anatolian Heartland, take empirical power over Arabs
• 1908 – Young Turk Rebellion – army of young officers who try to introduce reforms regime, want to restore things – fails
• 1914 – Ottomans make alliance w/ Germany thinking they could reclaim some Russian territory if/when Germany wins
• • Waged war on 7 fronts (shown in Lawrence of Arabia)
  • Victory of Galipoli, stayed in existence but lost – occupied after war
  • British occupy Constantinople, Italians occupy south, Greek occupy places of Greek minorities
• 1915 – Armenian Genocide carried out by Turkish govt, drove them into the Syrian desert
• Greeks defeated and militarily drives out by Mustafa Kamal – consolidates empire int Turkik state – Greeks transferred over to Greece
• France & Britain want the conquered areas – want order, military bases & access to resources (Persian oil)
• Create states they take as mandates – French -> Syria, Lebanon, British ->Trans-Jordon, Iraq, Palestine
• Iraq – Britain installs existing ruling family as head of state – Sunnis, despite Iraq being Shiite
• Britain pulls out due to public opinion & bad economy – Iraq plagued by coups and instability
• Palestine – British mandate, promised in secret to British Jews to become Jewish Homeland – Balflour letter – tensions rise between Jews and Palestinians throughout interwar period
• Mustafa Kamal – Turkey’s new leader – Turkey finds success and stability in post war
• France & Britain agree to a free Turkey in return for free ring over former Ottoman colonies
• Nation building through ethnic cleansing

Lesson 8 – Search for Order – Asia

 

China

• China – largely independent but with forced concessions – shared similarities w/ Ottoman empire
• Tsing Tao, German colony (beer)

Japan

• Japan – 1st non western state to successfully acquire marks of Western power to compete in the world of imperial comptition
• • Studied German armies
  • Go to war against China, take Korea, Taiwan, Manchuria
• 1905 – japan defeats the Russians
• 1914 – Japan declares war on germany, seizes tsing tao
• Screwed over during Paris Peace Treaties – 1919
• Japan has very little natural resources – economic growth & development dependent on trade, open door
• Surplus population and discrimination abroad
• Constantly curtailed in imperialist aspirations by other world powers – hypocrisy
• Mukden Incident – incited war w/ China, invades Manchuria – League of Nations condemns Japan

India

• India – British Colony – East India Company – not many English actually lived there who weren’t w/ the Raj, sent their kids back to british schools – India had been promised greater autonomy for their con scripture in the war – riots break out in Punjab, British officers fire on crowd
• Ghandi – promotes a free India
• Burma – also British colony
• Thailand/Siam – quasi independent state
• Indo-China taken by French
• Indonesia – Dutch
• Phillippines – US

Lesson 9 – Collapse of the Post War World

– States are becoming more organised for war in terms of leadership – Garrison States (Laswell)

– Germany – 1920’s – slowly reckoned themselves to dealing with peace settlements – Great Depression hits hard

– 1929 – National elections in Germany – radicals on the right are small minority

– Jan 1933 – Hitler made Chancellor – aristocracy thinks they can use him for their benefit

– Hitler destroys enemies and dissolves other parties

– German aggression – world at large tries to contain Germany but realises they don’t have much power to enforce anything – Hitler pushes against and eventually breaks the Treaty

– Occupation of the Rhineland – last opportunity to stop German aggression cheaply – appeasement prevailed and encouraged Hitler

– European majority wanted to avoid any further war

– 1937 – Renewal of war in Asia – 1931; Mukden incident & Manchuria, now an all out war against China, which is already in a civil war between nationalists and communists – Rape of Nanking occurs via Japanese aggression into China – Communists head north, Nationalists head further east

– Hitler’s large incentive – need more space for the German race – November meeting – Hitler fires those who disagree

– Britain – Neville Chamberlain – spoke of prospects of a peaceful world – avoid war at almost any price – Britain in poor economic state – abandons gold standard – cannot afford more war

– Germany goes after German speaking areas of Austria – presented to the world as Wilsonian self determination – threat to Czechoslovakia (had been put together by Czechs and Slovaks after WWI) – has alliance w/ France

– 1938 – Czechs turn to French & British for backup/support – Chamberlain meets w/ Hitler – make deal, avoids war, but then Hitler re-cants, looks like they’re going to war, Hitler agrees to other meeting, Chamberlain gives him everything he wanted to avoid war – Munich Appeasement

– Hitler, however, continued aggression

– Appeasement was entirely in line with public opinion, but great mistake in not preparing for certain war

– Hitler marches on Czechoslovakia and adds them as protectorate, not longer a case of self determination

– Next is Poland, but unlike the Czechs, they resist

– America staunchly against involvement

– Hitler & Stalin sign treaty of non-aggression with secret clause that divides Poland between them

Hitler’s Rise to Power (Khan Academy & Podcasts)

– Adolf Hitler – fought in WWI, nationalist views

– Weimar Republic, established without overarching support

– Beer Hall Pusch – Hitler arrested, writes Mein Kampf

– Germany flourishes under economic support from America, until Depression hits and Germany cannot repay their loans – hyper inflation

Lecture 10 – The Second World War

European Theatre

– Hitler invades Poland – 1939

– France & Germany declare war – waited behind the Maginal line

– 1939-40; phony war

– Spring of 1940 – German goes around France into Arden forrest & Belgium – France is out of the fight

– Vichy France is installed as puppet state of Germany

– British forces withdraw, leaving much of their stuff behind – Dunkirk – Hitler expects Brits to give up

– Winston Churchill is prime minister, committed to continuing the war

– Battle of Britton – Hitler tries to destroy airforce

– London Blitz

– Hitler turns forces eastward to Stalin/Soviet Union – hoped victory over SU would cause Britain to make peace

– Not a state on state war – war against Soviet society – wants to root out communism – takes much of Russia

– Dec 1941 – Invades Stalingrad, many Russians killed, Stalingrad is devastated

– Winter comes, Germans not equipped, Russia runs them out – 1943 – turning point; first defeat for Hitler

Pacific theater

– Started much earlier w/ Mukden incident – Japanese victories

– Japan in China, face similar problems as Hitler in Russia

– Japan had eyes on imperial colonies to the south, but America stood in the way – Phillioppines, Indonesia etc fall to Japan

The Battle of Midway

– Dec 2, 1941 – Japanese armada set out for Hawaii – Izomuku Yamamoto, commander of Japan’s navy – Pearl Harbour attack

– 1942 – US retaliates w/ air strikes

– Japan gained strategic victories

– Midway – small island between Japan & Hawaii, US airforce base – Japan planned to attack but was intercepted by US intelligence, which prepared for the attack

– Normandy?

– Roosevelt dies of poor health, Harry S Truman (Vice President) takes over, kept largely in dark about a lot of things

– Both Germany & Japan had gained a lot of territory they were not equipped to maintain, using fast and brutal warfare – left Britain & US standing

– When a war of attrition settles in, the larger, more economically stable side will always win

– Wars of attrition – nothing is decisive, everything counts

– Total war – WW2 made civilians fair game and involved a heavy racial element – holacast

Lecture 11 – Foundations of the Post-War World

– Tactical success never wins wars unless it is combined with operational and strategical success

– Japan & Germany reduced to tactical successes, wars of attrition with countries far more plentiful in resources to hold out

– 1945, May 8 – War ends for Germany when Soviet forces come within striking distance of his bunker near the Arden, he kills himself

– 1945, August – War ends for Japan only after bombings of Hiroshima & Nagasaki

– German prisoners in Soviet Union wouldn’t get home for many years, holacaust survivors, bombed out cities

– Hardly any American citizens killed

– Issue of collaborators and resistence

– Victors (US, Britain, Soviets) didn’t have clear plans for a post war world

– Winston Churchill on alliance w/ Soviets – “If Hitler invaded hell, I’d find nice things to say about the devil.”

– Churchill really wanted American help, met secretly w/ Roosevelt – Atlantic Charter

The World of 1945

– American economy boomed after WW2, Roosevelt wanted to expand American ideals and goods, few citizens had died, America now controls most powerful weapon, industry had grown immensely

– Russia was paranoid of it’s position in the world, had suffered massive losses despite ultimately being victorious – concerned about the ‘German Problem’, wanted buffer zones to protect their political ideals from revolution like that which toppled the Czar and nearly succeeded in toppling theirs

– Germany, unlike after WW1 in which their central sovereignty via the Weimar Republic, now had a dissolved sovereignty divided between the victorious powers – 4 zones of troops (US, Britain, France, Soviets)

– Falls invariably into East & West zones of influence: solution to the German Problem

– China resumes its civil war between the nationalists and communists

– South Asian vie for independence – India succeeds – true collapse of colonialist/imperialist ideals

15 Minute History – Colonial & Post-Colonial South East Asia + Inside the Indian Independence Movement

– Indian ‘Congress’ (nationalist movement party) withdraws support for Britain in war

– Leaders rounded up and put in jail

– The Muslim League – work w/ british as way to increase influence

– Royal Indian navy & airforce go on mutiny at tail end of WW2 – nationalist movements – Ghandi

– British had set up religious groups at odds with each other in terms of politics (divide and create in-fighting so your subjects can’t unite against you)

– 1940’s – ideas of Hindu & Muslim homelands starts floating around

– 1919 – Ghandi returns to India from South Africa, where had worked as a lawyer for Indian community there

– Joins ongoing nationalist movement – turns a constitutional movement into a social movement

– Uses Indian languages, religious symbols

– Britain withdraws after WW2 as the new world powers are now making the rules – new labour party comes to power in Britain- India divided between Hindus and Muslims, India & Pakistan – done too quickly, considered a blunder

– Borders drawn quickly, people on either side only had a few days to get on the right side of the border – massive ethnic cleansing

– 14th & 15th August – India & Pakistan gain independence

– Pakistan gets no real agricultural advantages or systems that India had from British rule

– Pakistan as a name – P – Punjab, A – Afghanistan, K-Kashmir, Balustan (Land of the Pure)

– Kashmir & other contested regions were forcefully annexed into states created by British

– Punjab – divided between Pakistan & India, heavily Seikh population

– Bengal – Muslim population but far away

– Princely states to cast vote over whether to join India or Pakistan

Lecture 12 – Origins of the Cold War

Congress of Vienna – 1815  – 5 great powers

– Prussia, France, Britain, Russia, Hapsburg Monarchy

Paris Peace Conference – 1919 post WW1

– Russia has dropped out, in civil war/revolution

– Hapsburg Empire has dissolved

– Germany though subject is not participant

– Britain & France are joined by Japan in marginal role & United States

1945 post WW2 – No conference

– End of war is open ended

– Europe has shrunk back politically to what it was geographically

– New superpowers – USA & Soviet Union – rivalry inevitable due to radical difference in situation and ideology

– Harsh sentiments against the Japanese in America, internment camps in California

– America as a whole decides to turn its efforts to Europe/SU

– Potsdam Conference

– Main concern; what to do with Germany

– This is when the first nuclear weapon goes off in new Mexico

– 9, Feb, 1946 – Stalin goes to Bolshoi theatre in Moscow & gives election speech – emphasis on economic and socialist ideals, war is between capitalism (which leads to conflict) and communism

– The long telegraph – Kennan, basically predicts the cold war, basis for Doctrine of Containment

– 1947 – Truman Doctrine – America takes over many of Britain’s former spheres of influence to resist the expansion of communism as Soviet Union encroaches in Turkey (which is having a civil conflict w/ Yugoslavia)

– Communist regimes emerge in Soviet controlled areas across Eastern Europe as line of security

– Growing fear this will expand into Germany, Italy & France which have large and active communist parties

– Germany needed to be economically reinvigorated to keep rest of Europe afloat, new currency introduced into Western Germany, which violates Potsdam, Soviets close off access to Berlin (Berlin Blockage, broken by Berlin Airlift)

– Germany divided into 2 states, East & West

– NATO is created

Lecture 13 – Nuclear Strategy & Stagecraft

– The more you invest in defense, the more you invite your opponent to invest in offence

– Might also be seen as prelude to a first strike to insulate you from the enemies retaliatory move

Lecture 14 – After Empire; The Middle East

– Relatively little impact from WW2

– 1953 – Coup against illegally elected prime minister Mohamed Mosadeq organised by British & CIA

– Mosadeq had tried to nationalise Iran’s oil

– Introduced regime under military & shah

– Coup stays in countries collective memory

– British troops occupied Palestine, couldn’t deal with insurgencies (both Jewish & Arab), left without declaring a successive power

– Two state solution was proposed, Jews accepted & Palestinians declined

– Jews create own state after Britain leaves – Arab neighbours invade immediately – Israel wins

– Modernizing, military, secular – new leaders

– 1967 – 6 Day War – Israel gains huge territory & Palestinians

Lecture 14 – After Empire – Africa

– Algeria – colony/part of France

– 1954 –  riot between Muslims & French after news of French defeat in Indo-China

– France wins militarily but cannot keep peace – Charles DeGaule grants Algeria independence

– Becomes model for decolonisation in Africa

Lecture 16 & 17 – After Empire – Asia

– Common feature of Asian empires; never tried to expand outside of Asia w/ exception of Mongols

– As opposed to direct colonies in Africa & indirect spheres of influence in Middle East, Asia had mix of everything

– Indonesia – Settled by the Dutch much as Algeria was by the French – largest Islamic country

– China sinks back to internal conflict after war – between warlords, the nationalists (cheng kaishek) & chinese communists (mao)

– 1949 – Mao & communists take China – People’s Republic of China

– 1950 – Mao meets w Stalin & signs treaty of agreement w/ Soviet Union – Stalin was Mao’s hero, but Stalin doesn’t return the view

– June, 1950 – Korean War breaks out

– 38th Parallel crossed by republic of North korea into south korea

– Korea – Had become a Japanese colony, taking during 1890’s after Japan’s victory over China

– Japan – Aug 15, gives up war via emperor

– Gives up army, occupied by US, which has a base in Okinawa to this day, relies on US for protection

– Winston Churchill replaced by Clemence Atley – created the welfare state, started NHS

– 1956 – Kruschev succeeds Stalin and denounces Stalin – Mao sees this as a denouncement of himself as well

– Kruschev promotes peaceful co-existence – wants to build up Soviet Union economically

– Mao & Kruschev don’t like each other, strained relations between them

– Vietnam – former French colony, French Indo-China – was ruled directly as colony

– Ho-chi Min – marxist, tried to work for Vietnamese self determination

– Japanese take over Vietnam after French defeat in 1940

– Ho-Chi Min declares republic of Vietnam – 1945 when Japanese leave

– French want colony back, go in with puppet of their own – Bao Dai

– 1940’s – civil war breaks out between Ho-chi min, French colonialists & supporters

– 1950 – US side w/ French against communism, though not directly

– 1954 – Diem Bien Phu – Vietnamese victory over French foreign legion paratroopers

– US gets France to agree to a temporary concession – 17th parallel created

– Ho-chi min agrees as US claims it will allow elections and he feels he will win

– Bao Dai replaced by Diem, a catholic, persuades Americans he can do what they require

– Diem cannot maintain stability

– American presence increases, Ho-chi min trail forged

– 1963 – coup against Diem, who is killed

– 1975 – fall of Saigon, millions of Vietnamese die/flee

Lecture 18 – The Third World

– Decolonization + study into world population – “The Population Bomb”

– People begin to worry that the ‘wrong kind of people’ are having too many children

– George Marshall – “The poor little people are beginning to see what is out there and want some for themselves”

– Power, interest, policy – never without ideology – driving force of world views behind them

– Pivotal time for social sciences – trying to understand modernisation

– Traditional society vs modern society

– Anthropology view – breakdown of small societies, move into big cities

– Economic view – breakdown of local markets into larger markets, capital, trade, etc

– Steering modernisation through development + aid

– Marxism, opposed to expectations, emerges in the most under developed industrial countries – Russia, China

– 3rd world – emerged in 50’s – not belonging to the 1st world (capitalist) or 2nd world (communist)

– Primary struggle is against colonisation

– Bandung meeting – between ‘colour curtain’ nation leaders

– Once colonial masters were kicked out, the 3rd world unity began to waver

Lecture 19 – Superpower Coexistence and Competition

– Conflict and limitation, detainment, placing power in the other

– Hungary rebels – 1956 – hoped US would come to aid and were put down by Soviets

– Nixon & Kissinger (Rockafeller connections), Brejnev

– Nixon believed Soviets and Chinese had more influence in Vietnam than they had, turned a civil war conflict into a cold war conflict

– 1972 – Nixon visits China, re-elected

– SALT, anti missile treaty – stabilise arms race

Oil Crisis of 1970’s

– OPEC raises prices at start of Yom Kippur War ’73 for states who support israel

– US driven to diversify sources of oil

– France & Great Britain quietly withdraw from Israel support

– Iran & Israel allies – iran supplies israel w/ almost all its oil until ’79 revolution

– 1982 – prices regulate again via diversified supply

– Nixon paranoid against aristocracy – Watergate scandal – replaced by Ford

– West Germany doesn’t acknowledge East Germany as legitimate state

– 1969-1973 – Ost Politik – managing status quo – new leader elected in West Germany, acknowledges East Germany – dilemma – legitimise the force oppressing them?

– Helsinki Agreement

– Ford loses election, Jimmy Carter wins, no foreign political experience, run campaign as critic of detante

– wanted more human rights, more political freedom, jews to immigrate to is real, open liberal societies

– arms control, changing states from within their own borders as opposed to global politics

– Things go badly for Carter – East Germany clamps down immigration/border movement

– 1979

– Soviet Union invades Afghanistan – US responds by supplying anti-soviet guerrilla forces with weapons

– Islamic Revolution in Iran – hostage crisis

– at the time the concern was over losing the Shah who was an ally against communism, but weren’t that concerned over the new theocracy as our enemy was communism

– Sadam Hussein comes to power in Iraq and begins a war against Iran a year later

– begins a process of destabilisation

– backed by US as client against Khomeini’s Iran

– Reagan defeats Carter – “evil empire” of communism – starts military build up which started under Carter

– Strategic Defence Initiative – STAR WARS

– Reagan realises there is no winnable military manoeuvre

Lecture 20 – End of the Cold War

– detainment/diplomacy/detante vs. agressive action

– 1914 vs 1936 in terms of historical precedence

– Neo-conservatives rose out of detanté critics

– 1985 – After a series of old and infirm leaders taking succession and dying in Soviet Union, Gorbachev comes to power

– Gorbachev born in 1932 – remembers WW2 but didn’t participate – the importance of generation in countries that have experienced trauma in instigating change – irrationalities, stagnant economy, paranoia

– too much power at the top, no social mobility, brain drain – fires & replaces key figures

– things needed to be opened up, ties loosened, create flexibility  – Glassnos – sees himself as reformer

– Met w Reagan, wanted him to dismantle Star Wars, was refused

– Declared to no longer use Soviet Power to enforce political conformity

– 1988 – travels to NYC – fives speech – “the relationship between states should not be contaminated by ideology”

– New Polish pope, first not italian pope in —years – religion becomes important again in Poland

– Control over satellite states is loosened

– Germany – borders had closed by 1961 between East & west – built wall to stop brain drain

– East Germany – had started to rely too much on foreign resources – cooked books – security at centre – bribery – imprisonment

– 1989 – Dissent begins – East Germans can now leave through Hungary (which no longer closes its borders) and into Austria, from where they get into West Germany – brain drain increases again – Gorbachev refuses to use force to maintain order

– 1991 – Soviet Union Collapses as client states re-establish independence – in attempt to do good and reform an ailing empire, Gorbachev made the world better but was left with nothing but the end of his own career

– “Men make history, but it’s not the history they intend to make.” – Karl Marx

Lecture 21 – A New World Order

– Reasons for collapse largely 3

– inherent weakness in Soviet Union (mostly economical)

– Reagan’s STAR WARS and other advances and intimidation

– Detente and diplomacy

– Lenin believed that if the Reds achieved their communist revolution the rest of the world would follow

– Gorbachev believed that he could make key reforms to union and still maintain its existence

– When Lenin realised he was wrong, he held on to his power because he knew he wouldn’t survive if he didn’t

– When Gorbachev realised he was wrong, he surrendered, because he knew he could continue a comfortable lifestyle regardless

Gulf War

– First struggle to mark a post cold war world is one over land and resources – The first Gulf War

– in the aftermath of an 8 yr conflict with Iran, Iraq under Sadam Hussein, was left bankrupt and looked towards its oil rich neighbour to the south; Kuwait

– US at first doesn’t know how to react as they’d backed Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war but they are also allies with Saudi Arabia for oil interests and once he’d conquered Kuwait, he rested his tanks on the Saudi border

– US creates coalition with variety of countries, including Syria which had been hostile towards US

– US victory – “Saddam fought war we wanted and lost” – retreated – US allowed Saddam to retreat because they believed that by toppling him they would upset the balance of power in the region and their arch nemesis, the Islamic Republic of Iran, would gain too much power. They also believed Saddam wouldn’t survive in the long run, that the Shiites and Kurds would rebel against him

– Established USA as new and dominant world power, created precedence for foreign intervention in Middle East

Yugoslavia

– European Union created

– NATO survived despite being created to deal with cold war

– Yugoslav Crisis

– New state created 1919 around old Kingdom of Serbia which acquired parts of defeated empires after 1st world war – state divided by religious differences – tensions

– 1945 – Tito sets up communist regime in Yugoslavia to paper over demographic differences

– Kosovo – historical heartland of Serbians but largely replaced by Albanians

– 1980 – Tito dies

– 1991 – collapse of Soviet Union takes away unifying ideology holding it together

– Croatia & Slovenia declare their independence

– US is in Iraq, doesn’t intervene, recognises independence, which has destabilising effects

1992 – Bosnia, a majority Muslim but also Christian Serbian and Orthodox area is also brought in

– Bosniaks (Bosnia Muslims) become primary victim of ethnic cleansing via Serbians

– Srebrenica massacre/genocide by Bosnian Serbs  causes NATO to go to war for the first time, to bring stability to a state that could no longer manage itself

Lecture 22 – The Last Superpower

– Clinton wins campaign against Bush Sr due to focus on economical growth

– 1992 – Somalia – failed state – people are starving but US/NATO can’t get aide to them because the shipments are seized, so they are invaded – ends in disaster – Black Hawk Down

– Intervention in Kosovo and Bosnia and Iraq set precedent for new techno-wars that can win conflicts without inflicting great losses

– Administration becoming aware that there are people out to harm us via Islamists who first attempted to blow up the work trade centre by driving a truck of explosives in the underground parking garage – 1993

– Increased violence on US embassies – attack on USS Cole in Arabian Peninsula – Oct 2000

– Knows where Bin Laden is but don’t take him out because they can’t guarantee lack of civilian casualties

– Bush election – no mention of terrorism, little emphasis on foreign affairs

– Condoleza Rice, for provost of Stanford – “The US is not the world’s 911” – robust limit on our global interventions, state building – no involvement until direct threat to self – political realist – becomes national security advisor

– Neoconservatives – critics of detente – Chaney, Pearl, etc

– 2001 – 9/11 – creates new rhetoric – morality, independence, preemption

– Administration demands Afghanistan hands over Bin Laden, they refuse, we invade

– Afghanistan/Taliban is armed with weapons supplied to them by us to fight off Soviets in 70’s

– Many have tried to invade and control Afghanistan (Persians, British, Soviets) – bad territory for feet on the ground

– Initial success – US sets up government within weeks, Taliban escapes to mountains

– Washington set sights on Iraq though there was little legitimate precedent for going there

– Not supported by non-interventionist/state building/moralist realists

– Ideal target for neo-cons – ideals of eliminating evil, setting a potentially democratic society free (Iraq was secular ba’athist) and creating a potential ally – and of course, they had a bunch of oil

– Operational victory, regime is toppled – long run becomes a strategic loss

– Green zone is set up in centre of city for bureaucracy and state building – chaos ensues and escalates – sectarian violence between sunni majority and shia minority – gangs, looting, militias – violence against coalition

– 2007 – The Surge – new troops, General Patreas

Lecture 23 – From “The War on Terror” to the War in Iraq

– Insurgency – asymmetrical warfare – only one side of the war is a state

– Insurgencies are cheap, counter insurgencies are expensive

– Islamist ideology

– Sayid Qutb – born in 1906, Egypt under King Farouk – 1948 – went to Colorado to school – didn’t like American society

– Returned to Egypt 1950 – joined conspiracy against Farouk who was on the throne via the British and was deeply corrupt, immoral and effective – thrown out of office by core of officers – replaced by Nasser

– Qutb fell out with Nasser, fell in with opposition to create an Islamic State as opposed to Nasser’s failed Pan-Arabist plans

– Was thrown in jail, tortured by secret police – hanged in 1960’s

– Amwan Zwahiri

– born 1951 to affluent family of teachers + doctors, Egypt

– Struck by corruption of regime, joins Muslim Brotherhood, also jailed, tortured, leave Egypt and goes to Afghanistan

– Osama Bin Laden

– Born 1956, wealthy Saudi family

– Struck by corruption of lavish Saudi royalty, how his country gives their resources to outsiders/foreigners or to locals who misuse it

1979

– Islamist radicals seize mecca and demand reform from Saudi government, they are rounded up and beheaded

– Islamic Revolution in Iran – clergymen take power from Shah – fighting against ; Materialism, Westernization, Corruption

– Invasion of Afghanistan by Soviet Union

– Bin Laden went there as young man to aid insurgents (who are armed by CIA) against Soviet Union

– Insurgents win, drive away 2nd most powerful force in world power

– Struggle against outsiders and their local clients. A struggle for virtue, austerity, materialism, corruption

– Goals of 9/11 attack: make USA withdraw from middle east and the corrupt rulers they back (their primary enemies; king of Saudi Arabia, president of Egypt, Jordan – rulers who have sold out resources and lifestyle to western world) – make them withdraw their support of Israel

Lecture 24 – The Future of Sovereignty: Failed States

– Predatory states attacking other states – WW2

– Predatory governments attacking their own people

-History of Sovereignty – Jean Boudain – 6 books on the commonwealth – 1570’s

– Cambodia – Pol Pot

– Congo – Diamond trade

– Rwanda – interracial genocide spurred by colonial influence

Lecture 25 – The Future of Sovereignty: Contested Spaces

– Idea of sovereignty transfers from divine to democratic – sovereignty is with ‘the people’

– Who qualifies as ‘people’? men, land owners, white etc. Can any peoples declare themselves a state? What unifies a people?

– Mill – a common set of ideals and a history – a common past

– nation state – not the same

– Ireland – protestants conquer and immigrate into Ireland in 17th century – take best land

– demographically, catholics are majority but are left out of power (like Sunnis/Shia in Iraq) – conflicts occur over national identity

– Ireland is partitioned – north Ireland = protestant & part of UK, rest remains independent + Catholic

– Ulster

– 1960’s onwards – the troubles

– Cyprus – British colony until 1960’s – gained independence – 2 groups; Greeks & Turks –

–  70’s full scale civil war – Turks invade and take north – partition

– Israel-Palestine

– Chechnia

– The Kurds – people without a state – 70’s violence breaks out in Turkey over Kurdish independence

– Iraqi Kurdistan – own army, own sources of order, economic independence – commercial hub

– Kashimir

– East Timor

– Rebels in Sri Lanka

– Solutions?

1) international intervention/watchdogs (post ww2 europe)

2) partition – most contested spaces are small already – always people to disagree with borders

3) send them away – ethnic cleansing

– Violence creates people who want more retributive violence – males 18-35, excitement, anger, purpose, marginalisation

Lecture 26 – The Future of Sovereignty: The European Model

Lecture 27 – The International System in 2008

Lecture 28 – Conclusion